Oduu biyyaaPosted by Hundasa 2007-06-05 11:28:07Next Prime Minister ???
(
Oduu.com, By Galmo Haromaya) In the recent interview with Jonathan
Dimlbey of the Teachers TV, the prime minister of Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi, has
reaffirmed that he would not seek office during the next election.
Meles had made similar statements in the past but had never been materialized.
What makes this round of statement more likely to be true is the fact that
Meles has faced increasing pressure from his own ruling party, the Tigrean
People Libration Front (TPLF), to step down. Inside information has conformed
to this writer that several members of the Politburo of TPLF have advised
Meles that he must step down for the sake of reviving the party?s image as a
democratic organization.
This recent announcement by the Mr. Zenawi has led many people to
speculate about who his successor is going to be. The speculation and rumor has
created intense debate among supporters of the Zenawi?s government. The
Tigrean community in particular is divided along two lines in this debate.
Hardliner Tigrean nationalists have insisted that the next prime minster
must be a member of TPLF while moderates have continued to advocate for
appointing a non-Tigrean in order to give credibility to the administration
and to silence the opposition group that are protesting against Tigrean
domination of Ethiopian politics.
The former argues that in the face of mounting pressure against the
Tigrean leadership, and the continuing defection of non-Tigreans from the
government, it is becoming impossible to trust a non-Tigrean holding a
key
government position. They fear that, even though they appoint a trusted
individual from one of the three members of the TPLF-controlled coalition,
Ethiopian Peoples? Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), the individual
might align with opposition groups of his own ethnicity. They support
their argument by referring to recent defections of once highly trusted
military commanders and high ranking officials, mostly from Oromo ethnic group.
The later argues that appointing a Tigrean would further increase the
tension and suspicion against the Tigrean ruling elites and validates
to the international community the allegation that Ethiopia is fully run by
Tigreans. They believe that it is necessary to appoint a non-Tigrean
while putting a system that enables for a greater TPLF control. According to
this group, this model would work because the prime minister would be
surrounded by Tigreans who would serve as advisors and security personnel. They
also believe that even though Zenawi officially steps down, he would still
remain closely involved in all decision making process as an advisor.
However, those who advocate for appointment of a non-Tigrean seem to be
dominating the debate. Even though the Tigreans in Diaspora and the
elites in Mekele and Addis are as apprehensive about appointing a non-Tigrean
to the prime ministerial position, they seem to be convinced that it is
absolutely impossible to retain power under Tigrean domination unless a
non-Tigrean is appointed to give a semblance of change and real democracy.
The next controversial question was from which ethnic group the
non-Tigrian future prime minister should be appointed from. By virtue of their
sheer number as well as their domination of opposition politics, a PM from
the Oromo or Amhara ethnic groups were considered and intensely debated
upon among the Tigrean elites. Those who advocate for an appointment of an
Amhara justify their position by pointing to two crucial differences between
Amharas and Oromos within the EPRDF. They believe that the Amhara
National Democratic Movement (ANDM) leadership has shown better loyalty to the
TPLF- leadership than the Oromo People Democratic Organization (OPDO). This
claim is supported by the apparent high rate of defection from OPDO compared
to that of ANDM. The figures show that the Oromo defectors outnumber the
Amhara defectors in the ratio of 20:1. Prominent and once highly trusted
Oromos who served TPLF have defected and most have joined Oromo Liberation Front
(OLF) - one of the most formidable rivals to TPLF. A number of Oromos who once
were instrumental in establishing TPLF rule in Oromia state have either defected or rendered persona non grata or have been assassinated by TPLF security forces for opposing further consolidation of state power into the hands of Tigreans. These include former Oromian president Hassen Ali, former Ethiopian president Negasso Gidada, House of Federation Speaker Almaza Meko, former security chief Yonathan Dibissa, and most recently a highly decorated military leader, Brigadier General Kemal Gelchu, who defected along hundreds of Oromo soldiers in his unit and joined the OLF. Brigadier General
Kamal Gelchu is now appointed as the general commander of Oromo Liberation
Army which has recently allied with the Ogaden National Liberation Army in
the fight against the government of Ethiopia in Eastern Front. Therefore
they argue that appointing an Oromo to a prime ministerial position could
bring disastrous consequences to the Tigrean domination of Ethiopia. Hence
appointing an Amhara is much safer than appointing an Oromo since ANDM
has not been plagued by defections as much as the OPDO did. During the past
16 years of TPLF domination of Ethiopia, only Tamirat Layine from the top
leadership in ANDM fell out with TPLF leadership. Even this fall out is not
due to political reasons but conflicts over their respective share of
personal property that was embezzled from Ethiopian peoples.
Those who advocate for appointing an Oromo present the following
argument. They believe that the most challenging opposition to the Tigrean
domination comes from Oromo nationalists, especially from members and sympathizers
of OLF. They also understand that such strong opposition from Oromo
emanated due to the obvious marginalization of the Oromos from the country?s
social, economic, and political process. They argue that, being the largest
ethnic group in Ethiopia, appointing an Oromo as a prime minster would
convince the international community that indeed there is democracy and proportional
power sharing in Ethiopia. They also emphasize that the ever increasing
uprising in Oromia region can subside if an Oromo prime minister is
appointed thereby depriving OLF and Oromo nationalists their claim that
Oromos do not have fair share within the Ethiopian system. Accordingly,
the international community would be deceived into believing that, in a
country where a third of the parliament is controlled by ?Oromos? and where the
prime minister is an ?Oromo?, it would not convince anyone if anybody
claims that Oromos have been oppressed. In this system, any human rights
violation will be perceived as if it has been committed by Oromos against Oromos;
therefore TPLF won?t be blamed. Therefore, this group advocates that
the best way to maintain Tigrean hegemony and legitimize their rule is by
appointing an Oromo as the next prime minister. To minimize the risk of
betrayal and probable alliance of the person with OLF, the group
suggests that all remaining key positions such as security, military and
advisory positions be filled with nationalist Tigreans who will keep the power
of the prime minister in check at all times.
Even though consensus has more or less been reached about appointing a
non-Tigrean, the Tigreans are yet to agree whether to appoint an Oromo
or Amhara although those who advocate for appointment of Oromo seem to
have dominated the debate.
Therefore the TPLF politburo has created an exploratory committee led
by Sibehat Nega, a founding member of TPLF, along with Professor Medhine
Tadesse, one of the prominent Tigrean scholars, and Prof. Kinfe Abraham
the president of the International Institute for Peace and Development
(Ethiopia)-a Tigrean think-thank group, to investigate and recommend
potential non-Tigrean successors to Meles Zenawi. The investigation is
aimed at collecting detailed information about ideologies and affiliations of
individuals in their social and political networks.
The Nominees
Top leaderships of the ANDM and OPDO have been the focuses of this
exploratory committee. The contenders from the Executive Committee of
ANDM were Tefera Walwa, Min. of Capacity Building, and Addisu Legesse,
deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development. These
two individuals have been involved in TPLF for almost two decades. Both
were once members of the Ethiopian People Revolutionary Party (EPRP) but
defected to TPLF in early 1980s to establish the Ethiopian People Democratic
Movement that was later converted to ANDM to fit into the EPRDF?s ethnic quota
appropriation. Mr. Walwa is the most loyal non-Tigrean, but had some
personal conflict with hardliner Tigrean nationalists. Addisu Legesse,
who was born in Hararghe and fluent in Afan Oromo, is a more pragmatic
Amhara with proven loyalty to Meles Zenawi. He was the person who saved Meles
Zenawi from the hardliner Siye Abraha?s conspiracy during the 2001 TPLF
internal crisis. Mr Legesse betrayed Siye?s group by informing Meles
about the proposed coup. Therefore even though some Tigrean nationalists
still see him as a traitor, he has the full backing of Meles. Both Walwa and
Legesse are chained to the top TPLF leadership through marriage and financial
dealing.
From the OPDO side, Abadula Gemeda, Kuma Demeksa and Girma Birru were
the leading contenders. Abadula, former minister of defense and the current
president of Oromia regional state, is unquestionably the most loyal
Oromo person to the TPLF leadership. However his lack of education and
increasing unpopularity as well as the claim by some Oromos about him not being an
Oromo has forced the explanatory committee to see him less favorably.
Kuma Demeksa- former president of Oromia and the current Minister of
Defense- had bad as well as good things going for him. The bad is that he took side
with Siye?s faction during the TPLF internal split and was sacked from his
position by executive order from Meles. The good thing is that by
laying low and never complaining about Meles? action, he was able to get sympathy
from Mr Zenawi who later appointed him as a Minster of defense last year.
Meles even made an honest remark when he nominated him to the parliament
saying that ?Teshrom Yalakorefe? meaning ?the one who did not get disappointed
even when fired?. Girma Birru, the Minster of trade and Industry is
considered by far the most eligible candidate with significant resume in loyalty and
ability. He is a well educated economist and had never showed sympathy
toward the oppressed Oromos and unlike some other OPDO leadership he
never mentioned or questioned the Tigrean domination of Ethiopian politics
and economic outlets.
Therefore Addisu Legesse, and Girma Birru, has been the most favored
from ANDM and OPDO, respectively.
A credible inside informant from the Tigrean side has confirmed that
the committee has strongly recommended Girma Birru to be the next prime
minister. The recommendation also seems to have been accepted by Meles
Zenawi. Girma Biru, even though he was a latecomer to OPDO, has served
Meles Zenawi with utmost loyalty. Girma is an economist and a bureaucrat who
served under the previous Ethiopian regime, the Derg, at a ministerial
position. According to the TPLF politburo, some of the qualifications
that made Girma Birru the most favored candidate are that he has no
affiliations with any Oromo opposition political party and has no nationalistic
sentiment like many OPDO members. His long resume has also convinced the
committee that his involvement with Derg and later on with TPLF is driven by
personal and material gains rather than any political ambition. Unless there is
a drastic change in Girma?s behavior and affiliation that might force the
politburo to reconsider their earlier exploratory results, we will be
seeing more of him on TV, radio and trips to foreign countries as a sign of
his preparation to assume his new position.
So What?
This recent move by the TPLF politburo and Mr. Zenawi to appoint an
Oromo as the next prime minister will undoubtedly generate a lots discussion
among those who follow the politics of Ethiopia and the region. I would argue
that the move is crucial for TPLF and is a tactical maneuvering by the
Tigrean elites. It is an acknowledgement to the fact that the most significant
opposition against the Tigrean hegemony is coming from Oromo
population. Unlike the short-lived Amhara opposition groups following the contested
2005 election, the Oromos have sustained an ever increasing diplomatic,
political and military pressure against TPLF. While legally functioning Oromo
political parties such as Oromo National Congress (ONC) and Oromo
Federalist Democratic Movement (OFDM) have publicly challenged and peacefully
exposed the regimes? gruesome actions in Oromia, OLF has stepped up its
military and diplomatic pressure. The current victory of OLF in infiltrating the
Ethiopian army ranks and files has permanently disabled TPLF ability
and reliance on Oromos as machinery of war. Similarly OLF?s, pragmatic move
in forming the Alliance for Freedom and Democracy (AFD) along with other
opposition groups has, for first time, enabled the party to be
increasingly trusted and embraced by non-Oromo peoples in Ethiopia. Consequently it
deprived TPLF the ability to divide and rule non-Tigrean peoples of
Ethiopia. Hence, in the mind of the Tigrean elites, appointing an Oromo
as the next prime minister would help them to get back on track.
From the Oromo nationalists? perspective, appointing Girma Birru or any
other Oromo as the next prime minister would not affect the Oromo
people positively or negatively. They argue that the Oromo people struggle
isn?t about having an Oromo president or prime minister. The struggle, they
say, is about dismantling the system of oppression and exploitation- it is
about creating a condition that would allow the Oromo to determine their fate
without external pressure. According to a prominent Oromo scholar from
Addis Ababa University, this is not the first time Oromos have been appointed
to leadership of Ethiopia. Teferi Bent was a president of Ethiopia between
1974-77, but nothing changed for Oromos during his rule. The empire
continued to be dominated by Amharas. Teferi himself was murdered when
he started to show disapproval of the killing of Oromo scholars and
leaders such as Tadesse Birru and Haile Fida. Similarly Dr. Negasso Gidada who
served as ceremonial president of Ethiopia under TPLF confessed that he
did practically nothing for the Oromo people except prolonging the reign of
TPLF. Then this scholar argues that appointing Girma Birru as prime
Minster would not serve the Oromos as long as the system of governance remains
under Tigrean control.
To the question whether the latest move could weaken the Oromo
opposition groups, by legitimizing TPLF?s claim of democracy, a leader of one of
the Oromo political parties here in Addis argued that as long as the
government continue to harass, imprison and kill Oromo students, scholars and
farmers, there will be impossible to slow down Oromo struggle let alone stop it.
Finally several critical questions remain unanswered. Would the Tigrean
elites make final decision to take the risk of appointing an Oromo to
such a key position? Could this risk taking adventure help legitimize Tigrean
hegemony as they dream? Could Girma Birru remain loyal to TPLF or make
historic decision, and join his fellow ex-OPDO members such as Almaz
Meko, Yassin Hussein, Hassen Ali, and Gen Kemal Gelchu, and surrender state
power to join Oromo nationalists? These are all question that time and only
time can answer.
*The writer
